Latest Budget predictions and speculation

Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, the largest US bank, has warned John Healey against taxing the financial sector in October's Budget, the FT reports. Any windfall levy on the sector could result in the UK suffering the same fate as New York. It has seen a decline in finance roles, partly because of the city's tax system, he is reported to have told the Chancellor.

Allies of the former Prime Minister are seeking to persuade new Chancellor John Healey not to raise taxes in October's Budget, The Financial Times reports. They worry that tax rises will snuff out growth, which, at 0.4% in the second quarter, was the fastest in the G7.

"Rachel Reeves did the tax-raising in her two Budgets, and they shouldn’t do any more," a source told the paper. "We have reached the limits on tax, and now it’s about driving growth and reform."

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has told the BBC that he is "going further on business rates" after the 20% cut already announced for pubs, clubs and live music venues.

"[W]e're going to look at business rates more broadly for high street businesses in the Budget, so there’s plenty more that we can do," he told Radio 5's Wake up to money programme. Saying that the costs of doing business were too high and admitting that increases to national insurance had added to pressure, he promised to do "everything that is possible" to help. However, he warned that there was “limited room for manoeuvre”.

Falling gilt yields could help Chancellor John Healey at the October Budget, according to analysts. The forecasts would restore the £10 billion to £12bn fiscal headroom lost from rising borrowing costs this year. Daniel von Ahlen, a strategist at TS Lombard, said bond investors should “double down on gilts”, Business Matters reports. 

Speculation of a new property tax is hitting the housing market, accordign to the former RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) residential chairman. "We are increasingly hearing on the ground too speculation about property tax changes in the Budget becoming more of a factor in decision-making," said Jeremy Leaf, a London agency owner told reporters.

The Chancellor is planning to borrow up to £9bn to finance infrastructure projects, housing development and incentives for businesses to stay in Britain in a drive to boost growth, according to The Telegraph. The borrowing will take advantage of changes to the fiscal rules introduced by Rachel Reeves to allow greater spending on national investment.

The Autumn Budget 2026 will be one that "moves money and power out of Westminster, and into every postcode around Britain", the Chancellor John Healey has said. Announcing that the Budget will be on Wednesday 28 October, Healey gave the strongest hint yet that fiscal devolution would be key focus of the Budget. He also said that the Budget would be "built on fiscal discipline" sticking to the government's fiscal rules and "give businesses and families some of the stability they need to plan for the future".

The Prime Minister has reiterated his commitment to address adult social care, and refused to rule out tax rises to pay for it, the BBC reports. A review of social care by Baroness Casey would now be published next summer instead of 2028.

The government has “no plans” for a 10% inheritance tax on all estates, a spokesperson has told The Independent. Government ministers have previously refused to rule out the change, which would scrap existing nil rate bands to impose IHT on all estates.

Workers may face a new tax to fund social care, according to the front page of The Daily Telegraph. A 1.8% levy on earnings would be put into a privately managed fund to pay for later-life care, the paper reports. The charge would be enough to fund a system costing £18 billion a year.

The government is considering options to reform council tax and stamp duty, according to The iPaper. Alternatives include either a proportional property tax with a flat 0.48% charge on the property’s current value, or a land value tax based on the value of the land the property sits on. While the government denied it was “actively considering” the change, Burnham has previously criticised council tax as highly regressive.