Jonathan Gillham

Jonathan holds a PhD in economics and is an expert in quantifying economic and financial impacts on business, wider society and individuals. He uses cutting-edge techniques to ensure his positions are defendable in contentious situations. He specialises in advanced econometrics, scenario analysis, and assessments of financial and economic impacts.

His work has focused on due diligence, complex damages calculations, and estimates of the impacts of Government policy measures. He is well recognised as a quantitative expert, having worked with governments and businesses around the world in some of the most high-profile and contentious energy, transport and infrastructure-related situations.

Experience

Jonathan occupied Chief Economist roles at both PwC and PA Consulting. During his time at PwC he produced forecasts on a regular basis regarding the economic outlook for the UK, G7, key emerging markets and Euro nations. He has produced detailed economic outlooks for a range of different sectors e.g. housing, aviation, leisure, financial services and construction. At PwC he led a team responsible for producing this analysis and differentiated it in a somewhat saturated market by applying highly technical AI and Machine Learning based tools to improve the quality of his teams work.

Jonathan also has extensive experience in forecasting inflation and commodity prices, primarily in the medium to long term. Primary areas of focus have been for Brent crude, gas, jet fuel, copper, diamonds, gold, different classes of timber and arable crops. These have supported business valuations for M&A activity, management of construction costs and government engagement.

Notable client work and achievements

Defending a global aviation manufacturer: due to supply issues with faulty parts, a claim was brought against the manufacturer. I led the quantitative elements of an expert report that examined the claimants passenger forecasts and lost profits/revenue claims.

Stranded aviation assets: working for a claimant to pursue damages against an insurer over a dispute regarding valuations of aircraft in Russia. Led expert report production fed into broader elements of the overall claim.

Airports Commission: I built a large-scale economic model known technically as a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the economic and financial impacts of runway expansion at Heathrow and Gatwick Airports. This was a highly contentious project and the work had to survive significant external and academic scrutiny.

Major international airline: built a market mix model to examine the cost-effectiveness and rate of return of the airlines marketing budget in North America. The analysis involved a thorough examination of the airlines marketing budget and its consequent impact on ticket sales. The analysis also focused on the appropriate mix and level of marketing spend and how their brand affected their overall sales.

Professional qualifications/memberships

Jonathan is an academic advisor to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The OBR are an independent arm of the UK Government who are responsible for producing the official forecasts of UK economic performance and public finances. PhD Economics,