Latest Budget predictions and speculation

Andy Burnham has refused to rule out tax rises in the Autumn Budget, ITV reports. Asked by reporters, he denied the public would "necessarily need to accept" that they would pay more tax to fund his existing spending pledges. However, he accepted that the public finances were challenging and said he "won't be unrealistic". 

"I ran Greater Manchester for ten years, and we ran a very tight ship with rock-solid finances. Nothing will change as I come into this role as Prime Minister," he said.

In a separate interview with LBC, the Prime Minister reiterated that he would honour the party's manifesto commitments. These include not raising the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, or VAT, as well as capping corporation tax at 25%.

The Chancellor has "little scope" to raise borrowing in the Autumn Budget, following an unexpected rise in borrowing, commentators have told the BBC. Borrowing was up more than two-thirds on last year in July at £1.8bn. It continued a "run of bad news" that will restrict Healey's options in October, one economist told the broadcaster. 

Chancellor John Healey could face a Budget “black hole” of up to £11 billion, the Telegraph reports, citing analysis by bank Societe Generale. The risk comes from a potential escalation in the Iran war causing an energy price shock that would push up inflation.

“Even before any policy announcements, fiscal headroom at the Autumn Budget could be £11.5bn lower than projected in March, owing to the US-Iran conflict weighing on growth and pushing up interest rates,” Economist Sam Cartwright told the paper. Should it worsen, the deterioration could be up to £35bn, he warned, more than wiping out the £24bn headroom reported by Rachel Reeves at the Spring Statement.

The voting records of key ministers involved in drawing up the Autumn Budget “point towards tax rises and away from welfare cuts”, according to an analysis by PensionBee, a pension provider. Capital gains tax rises, in particular, have had consistent support in the past from not only Andy Burnham and John Healey, but also Emma Reynolds, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, and Torsten Bell, the Pensions Minister, who advised Rachel Reeves in the run-up to her last Budget. He and Reynolds have also voted for stamp duty increases in the past.

The mansion tax, the high value council tax surcharge announced in last Autumn's Budget, is likely to rise in future, estate agent Knight Frank has warned. The charge, from £2,500 to £7,500 for properties worth £2 million or more, is due to take effect in April 2028, but may have to be increased to pay for spending plans announced by Andy Burnham.  

"A so-called Smorgasbord of taxes on assets and wealth is likely to be Burnham’s preferred method of payment for his plans, which would mean the High Value Council Tax bands may prove to be merely introductory rates," the head of UK residential research Tom Bill told reporters.

Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, the largest US bank, has warned John Healey against taxing the financial sector in October's Budget, the FT reports. Any windfall levy on the sector could result in the UK suffering the same fate as New York. It has seen a decline in finance roles, partly because of the city's tax system, he is reported to have told the Chancellor.

Allies of the former Prime Minister are seeking to persuade new Chancellor John Healey not to raise taxes in October's Budget, The Financial Times reports. They worry that tax rises will snuff out growth, which, at 0.4% in the second quarter, was the fastest in the G7.

"Rachel Reeves did the tax-raising in her two Budgets, and they shouldn’t do any more," a source told the paper. "We have reached the limits on tax, and now it’s about driving growth and reform."

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has told the BBC that he is "going further on business rates" after the 20% cut already announced for pubs, clubs and live music venues.

"[W]e're going to look at business rates more broadly for high street businesses in the Budget, so there’s plenty more that we can do," he told Radio 5's Wake up to money programme. Saying that the costs of doing business were too high and admitting that increases to national insurance had added to pressure, he promised to do "everything that is possible" to help. However, he warned that there was “limited room for manoeuvre”.

Falling gilt yields could help Chancellor John Healey at the October Budget, according to analysts. The forecasts would restore the £10 billion to £12bn fiscal headroom lost from rising borrowing costs this year. Daniel von Ahlen, a strategist at TS Lombard, said bond investors should “double down on gilts”, Business Matters reports. 

Speculation of a new property tax is hitting the housing market, accordign to the former RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) residential chairman. "We are increasingly hearing on the ground too speculation about property tax changes in the Budget becoming more of a factor in decision-making," said Jeremy Leaf, a London agency owner told reporters.

The Chancellor is planning to borrow up to £9bn to finance infrastructure projects, housing development and incentives for businesses to stay in Britain in a drive to boost growth, according to The Telegraph. The borrowing will take advantage of changes to the fiscal rules introduced by Rachel Reeves to allow greater spending on national investment.

The Autumn Budget 2026 will be one that "moves money and power out of Westminster, and into every postcode around Britain", the Chancellor John Healey has said. Announcing that the Budget will be on Wednesday 28 October, Healey gave the strongest hint yet that fiscal devolution would be key focus of the Budget. He also said that the Budget would be "built on fiscal discipline" sticking to the government's fiscal rules and "give businesses and families some of the stability they need to plan for the future".

The Prime Minister has reiterated his commitment to address adult social care, and refused to rule out tax rises to pay for it, the BBC reports. A review of social care by Baroness Casey would now be published next summer instead of 2028.

The government has “no plans” for a 10% inheritance tax on all estates, a spokesperson has told The Independent. Government ministers have previously refused to rule out the change, which would scrap existing nil rate bands to impose IHT on all estates.

Workers may face a new tax to fund social care, according to the front page of The Daily Telegraph. A 1.8% levy on earnings would be put into a privately managed fund to pay for later-life care, the paper reports. The charge would be enough to fund a system costing £18 billion a year.

The government is considering options to reform council tax and stamp duty, according to The iPaper. Alternatives include either a proportional property tax with a flat 0.48% charge on the property’s current value, or a land value tax based on the value of the land the property sits on. While the government denied it was “actively considering” the change, Burnham has previously criticised council tax as highly regressive.