Autumn Budget 2025

The official date for the 2025 Autumn Budget has yet to be confirmed but, based on precedent, it’s likely to fall in late October or early November. With Labour’s manifesto pledge to have only one major fiscal event a year for tax, this will be a landmark budget for the Chancellor following the relatively tame Spring Statement back in March.

Whether you’re an individual or a business, this Budget could have a huge impact. With Labour under pressure to rectify a multibillion-pound shortfall in government finances, changes are expected again, potentially in the form of increased taxes.

Ministers have also warned of significant financial repercussions following the government’s reversal on disability benefits and winter fuel payments—measures estimated to exceed £6bn.

The fiscal rules are the self-imposed restrictions the government puts on its tax and spending decision to promote responsible and sustainable policy. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts evaluate whether the government is on course to meet its rules.

The current government set out new fiscal rules in its October 2024 Budget:

• The stability rule, that the current Budget must be in surplus in 2029-30, until 2029-30 becomes the third year of the forecast period. Then the current Budget must remain in balance or in surplus from the third year of the rolling forecast period
• The investment rule, that debt (defined as public sector net financial liabilities) must be falling as a share of the economy by 2029-30 – again until it is the third year of the forecast period and then by the third year of the rolling forecast period

The need to balance the budget by 2029 is a key reason many expect tax rises this Autumn. Some, such as the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), have advised the Chancellor to tweak the rules to avoid the need for frequent changes to taxes and spending in response to small changes in the OBR forecasts.

This varies. Usually, tax measures won’t take effect until either the date of royal assent or the beginning of the next fiscal year (1 April for corporation tax and 6 April for income tax). Where changes are introduced to close a tax avoidance loophole, these can take effect immediately, however.

It’s also worth noting that confirmed tax or legislation changes may begin impacting individuals or businesses before coming into full effect. For example, rises to NICs impacted businesses before being introduced on 6 April 2025, due to many organisations operationally planning the year before.

Typically, budget speeches last between roughly an hour and an hour and a half. The longest Budget speech on record was delivered by William Ewart Gladstone in 1853, lasting an impressive 4 hours and 45 minutes. In contrast, Benjamin Disraeli holds the record for the shortest, speaking for just 45 minutes in 1867.

The upcoming Budget is expected to include £10bn- £20bn in additional tax rises, alongside an expected continued freeze on income tax thresholds. Meanwhile, tariffs introduced by US President Trump have added to global economic uncertainty, driving up UK borrowing costs.