Latest Budget predictions and speculation

The UK sugar tax may soon be extended to milkshakes and lattes to tackle obesity, according to the BBC. Drinks with 5g sugar per 100ml are currently taxed at 18p per litre, and 8g or more at 24p. The Chancellor is considering lowering the sugar threshold from 5g to 4g per 100ml.

A two-year extension of the existing freeze on personal tax thresholds will be the single biggest revenue raise in the Budget on Wednesday, the FT predicts. Other likely measures include a new council tax surcharge for homes worth over £2 million, increases in gambling taxes and alcohol and tobacco duties, as well as a potential 3p a mile charge for electric vehicles from 2028.

The Chancellor will also promise a clampdown on unpaid taxes and fraud, the paper predicts. Small businesses will be targeted particularly, as she seeks to reduce the "tax gap" from unpaid corporation tax, estimated to be £15 billion a year. 

Rachel Reeves will cut the annual cash ISA limit from £20,000 to £12,000 in Wednesday's Budget, according to The Financial Times. The change will attempt to encourage investment into shares, although the Chancellor is reported to have abandoned plans for a “Brit Isa” requiring a minimum allocation of 20 per cent to UK equities.

Labour MPs have been told a “mansion tax” will be in the Autumn Budget, The Standard reports. Citing politics site Politico, the paper reports that 30 backbenchers who met with the Chancellor were told the measure would be in the announcement. It could take the form of a 1% levy on the property values above £2 million, the paper says, so that owners of properties worth £2.5 million would face a £5,000 annual charge, for example. 

Tax hikes on gambling companies, new taxes on the most expensive homes, increased fuel duty and restrictions on the cash ISA allowance are the most likely Budget measures, according to the public. YouGov’s new polling also shows majority support for the first two, with 82% and 60% saying these were the right thing to do. Far fewer supported fuel duty increases (17%), however, and restrictions on cash ISAs were the least popular measure, with just 9% saying it was the right thing to do.

Other popular measures included removing VAT from energy bills and subsidising companies offering jobs to the unemployed young. Few think either will happen, however. 

The Chancellor may not, after all, raise the basic or higher levels of income tax at the Autumn Budget, The Financial Times reports. Despite the speculation and government hints that it would drop its manifesto pledge, officials say they have “ripped up” plans to raise income tax.

Early trading put “gilts on track for their worst one-day sell-off since investors fretted over the future of the chancellor in early July”, the paper adds. 

The Prime Minister has added to speculation that the government is preparing to remove the two-child benefit cap, according to The Independent, reporting his comments in a broadcast interview. It follows comments from the Chancellor yesterday that children should not be "penalised" for being part of larger families. 

In the same interview, Rachel Reeves "all but confirmed the government plans to break Labour's manifesto pledge at last year's general election not to raise income tax rates, VAT or national insurance," the BBC reports.

Rachel Reeves is to target salary sacrifice in the Autumn Budget, with a "£2bn raid on UK retirement savings", the FT reports. Government figures were seeking to quash speculation of cuts to tax-free pension lump-sum withdrawals, however, the paper adds. 

In an unusual pre-Budget speech at Downing Street, Chancellor Rachel Reeves refused to rule out a U-turn on Labour's manifesto pledge not to hike income tax, VAT or national insurance.

The Chancellor stated she will made "necessary choices" after the "world has thrown more challenges our way", as per the BBC.

The UK government is considering a 20% tax on the business assets of wealthy individuals who relocate abroad.

Dubbed a “settling-up charge,” the measure could raise £2billion and would bring the UK in line with similar tax practices in other G7 countries, according to The Times.

Kier Stamer has refused to reaffirm manifesto promises not to increase income tax, VAT or employees' NI, prompting renewed speculation of increases in the Autumn Budget, The Times reports. Asked by opposition leader Kemi Badenoch at Prime Minister's Questions whether he stood by the promise, he avoided doing so. 

It comes as Barclays forecasts that the Chancellor will seek £41.7bn in tax rises and spending cuts next month, similar in size to the "once in a parliament" increase introduced at the last Budget, The Telegraph notes.

The battle over a proposed mansion tax continues in the Treasury, according to The Independent. The proposal, according to the paper, is based on the Resolution Foundation's when it was headed by Torsten Bell, now a Treasury minister: Property owners would face an annual charge of 1% of a property's value exceeding £2 million. 

The BBC reports that Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out income tax rises at the Budget, despite Labour's promises not to raise the rates. The reports follow a story in The Guardian that the Treasury was considering increasing the basic or higher rates. 

Following its earlier report (below), The Times says that the Chancellor is considering limiting changes to partnerships’ national insurance exemption to LLPs (limited liability partnerships). The move is designed to ensure the change doesn’t hit GPs, while still ending preferential tax treatment for structures commonly used by lawyers, accountants and other professionals. The move would be “a serious error” creating and avoidance opportunities, suggests think tank Tax Policy Associates.

Rachel Reeves is considering a £2 billion "tax raid on solicitors and GPs”, The Times reports. The paper says that the Chancellor believes national insurance exemptions offered by limited liability partnerships used by doctors' surgeries, solicitors and accountants are unfair. She aims to address this tax advantage over ordinary employment at the Autumn Budget.

It's understood that the government may step in to help lower energy costs, potentially by scrapping the existing 5% VAT on energy, according to the BBC.

Another possibility is to cut back on some of the regulatory charges, currently included in energy bills.

Rachel Reeves has confirmed that, as widely expected, she is looking at tax rises in November's Budget. "As we get the forecast, and as we develop our plans, of course we are looking at further measures on tax and spending, to make sure that the public finances always add up," she told broadcasters ahead of the International Monetary Fund annual meeting.

As The Guardian reports, she also confirmed that taxes on the wealthy "will be part of the story" in the Autumn Budget. 

The Express again raises speculation that pensions will be in the firing line at the Autumn Budget. The Chancellor could cut tax relief on both contributions and withdrawals, the paper says, quoting figures from Oxford Economics that Rachel Reeves needs to raise £30 billion through taxes or spending cuts.

A mistake by the ONS (Office of National Statistics) means government borrowing has been overpredicted by £3bn, as per The Guardian. This leaves Rachel Reeves with some wriggle room for her Autumn Budget spending.

The additional budget comes after a VAT error, which saw the ONS confirm public borrowing estimates have been undercalculated by £200m-£500m a month since January 2025.

The chancellor is set to backtrack from plans to put large retailers in the top business rates band, the FT reports. Last year, the government proposed reforms to increase rates on properties with rateable values over £500,000 to fund a permanent discount for small retail and hospitality premises. The Treasury is said to be reconsidering, however, following complaints by retailers, including supermarkets, who warn that it would push up inflation on food.   

The poor state of the economy could protect businesses from further tax rises, the FT's Lex column suggests. While businesses "bore the brunt" of tax rises in last year's Budget, slow growth, persistent inflation and consumer caution may persuade the chancellor to look elsewhere. 

"A government desperate for economic growth has to pay attention when payroll numbers have dropped in all but one month since Reeves’ last budget speech," it argues. 

Whitehall sources told the Daily Mail that the Treasury is considering extending VAT to private healthcare and financial services, the paper reports, reneging on previous promises. In an interview with the BBC before her Labour Party Conference speech, the chancellor said that "the world has changed". In his interview with the broadcaster, however, health secretary Wes Streeting ruled out adding VAT on private healthcare, telling BBC Breakfast, "it's not happening". 

The Resolution Foundation has urged Rachel Reeves to break manifesto promises and cut NI to raise income tax by 2p, Sky News reports. The move would "level the playing field" for different forms of income, says the think tank, previously headed by MP Torsten Bell, who was drafted in in August to help write the Autumn Budget. The move would raise £6 billion, the think tank says, mostly at the cost of pensioners, the self-employed and landlords, The Telegraph notes. 

Speculation continues that Rachel Reeves will introduce a "taxi tax" in the Autumn Budget with the Telegraph warning of it "punishing rural residents" while The Sun says it would add to the cost of holidays due to the use of minicabs for rides to and from stations and airports. 

The Office for Budget Responsibility will downgrade its forecasts for productivity, making it harder for the chancellor to meet her fiscal rules, according to The Financial Times. "We don't know precisely what they are going to say on productivity, but we have been given indications there will be a downgrade," the paper quotes an unidentified government official as saying. The news makes tax hikes "all but guaranteed", says City AM.

The government's interim report on business rates reform promises changes in the Autumn Budget. The last Budget committed to lower rates for retail, hospitality, and leisure properties with rateable values under £500,000 from April 2026, but a higher multiplier for the "most valuable properties". The interim report commits to exploring a move "from a 'slab' to a 'slice' approach" (moving from a single multiplier applied to the full rateable value to increasing rates for successive bands). The report promises an update and details of the new multipliers in the November Budget, "taking into account the 2026 revaluation outcomes, local government funding, and the economic and fiscal context".

Proposed pension reforms could significantly reduce tax advantages for savers in the form of three options for the Chancellor, according to the i Paper. One suggestion is to standardise pension tax relief at 20%, removing the higher rates currently enjoyed by higher and additional-rate taxpayers. Another potential change is lowering the tax-free lump sum from pensions, currently capped at £268,275, with some experts recommending a new limit of £100,000. Additionally, the government may target salary sacrifice schemes, which allow employees to boost pension contributions in exchange for reduced pay, potentially curbing their use to raise revenue.

Rachel Reeves is considering proposals for a tax raid on GPs and other professionals that would raise almost £2bn a year, as per The Telegraph. The Treasury has been presented with plans to levy national insurance (NI) on partnerships as the Chancellor scrambles for ways to fill a £50bn black hole in the public purse. Such a move would impact 190,000 workers, with family doctors, lawyers, solicitors, accountants and financial advisers hit the hardest.

FCA figures show a surge in withdrawals from pensions, driven by fears of a Budget clampdown, according to the Mail’s This is Money. Numbers taking tax-free cash are up by a third, and values withdrawn up more than 70% in the last financial year. Evelyn Partners, which obtained the figures through a freedom of information request, says it’s currently seeing a surge of enquiries similar to last summer’s ahead of the October 2024 Budget.  

Rachel Reeves' search for revenue in the forthcoming budget is focusing on capital gains tax and introducing a gambling tax, according to a source speaking to The Independent. The paper also notes that the Chancellor has reiterated her promises not to increase income tax, VAT or employees' NI and to stick with her fiscal rules. 

The Autumn Budget date has been confirmed as Wednesday, 26 November 2025. Treasury sources said the end of November was in line with typical timing for an Autumn Budget, and leaves time for the “full process” with the OBR, the BBC reports. This will include as a first stage a new baseline forecast for the UK from the OBR later this month.

Households and banks are likely to “bear the brunt” of tax rises in the forthcoming Budget, according to Capital Economics. The economics consultancy calculates that Rachel Reeves will need to raise £18-28bn in the Budget to avoid breaking her fiscal rules. The government’s promise not to raise taxes on “working people” leads the consultancy to argue that a bank surcharge and a quantitative easing levy are the two most likely tax rises in the Autumn Budget.

The Prime Minister’s “mini-reshuffle” makes wealth taxes more likely, according to the Telegraph. Appointments included Baroness Shafik as the PM’s new chief economics adviser and Dan Tomlinson as exchequer secretary to the Treasury. Both have previously worked for the Resolution Foundation think tank formerly headed by Torsten Bell. The moves suggest “wealth taxes will be hard-wired into Rachel Reeves’s second Budget”, the paper’s economics editor writes.

The BBC blames the fall in bank share prices on Friday on new tax proposals by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR). The think tank has suggested a new levy on the interest UK lenders receive from the Bank of England as part of its programme of quantitative easing. The IPPR said it amounts to a “subsidy of commercial banks”, and suggested a QE reserves income levy on them to raise £7-8 billion a year.

The Treasury is considering charging landlords national insurance on rental income, according to The Times. The move would reportedly seek to raise £2 billion by applying NI to property income, which is currently exempt. It is seen as “a significant potential extra source of funds”, according to insiders quoted by the paper, with landlords earnings considered “unearned revenue”.

The recruitment of MP Torsten Bell to help draft the Autmn Budget has prompted renewed speculation of tax rises to come. The Mail’s This is Money outlines seven previous tax raising ideas he’s had, from scrapping the residence nil rate band for inheritance tax and aligning capital gains and income tax rates to bringing down the VAT registration threshold to £30,000.

Limiting the tax-free lump sum individuals can take from their pensions savings could help the chancellor raise over £2 billion a year, according to the Telegraph. According to the paper, the idea will be among a list of money-raising proposals by civil servants to help the chancellor, as she seeks to cover a Budget shortfall of as much as £50bn.

Rachel Reeves is considering extending capital gains tax to high-priced homes, the FT reports. While people’s main residences have always been excluded from CGT, the chancellor is said to be considering a “mansion tax” on high-value homes that would see houses with values above a certain threshold losing the exemption, the paper reports.

The government may replace stamp duty with a new property tax the Autumn Budget, the Guardian says. The Treasury is reported to be considering options that include a new tax on the sale of homes worth more than £500,000 and overhauling council tax, potentially replacing it with a local property tax.

The Treasury is considering reforming inheritance tax rules on gifts, according to the Guardian. Changes could target the seven-year rule, under which gifts are free from IHT where the giver survives for this period afterwards, and under which IHT reduces on a sliding scale from three years onwards. 

Pantheon Macroeconomics predicts “back-loaded stealth and ‘sin’ tax hikes” as the chancellor seeks to cover a “£20B gap against headroom”. The economists suggest income-tax thresholds freezes and “either pension-tax or unspecified spending restrictions in 2029-30” will also play a role.